{"scope":"Win-rate-driven probability, validated out of sample. ELO and stat reveals are current-only in our data and would leak past outcomes, so they are excluded from the historical curve; the live odds endpoint adds them and labels them uncalibrated.","split":{"method":"temporal walk-forward","testRaces":13592,"fittedBeta":11,"trainRaces":31714,"cutoffRaceId":33774},"buckets":[{"hi":0.1,"lo":0,"count":43141,"actualFreq":0.0467,"predictedMean":0.0507},{"hi":0.2,"lo":0.1,"count":22746,"actualFreq":0.1508,"predictedMean":0.1373},{"hi":0.3,"lo":0.2,"count":6340,"actualFreq":0.3021,"predictedMean":0.2426},{"hi":0.4,"lo":0.3,"count":3278,"actualFreq":0.3868,"predictedMean":0.3461},{"hi":0.5,"lo":0.4,"count":2291,"actualFreq":0.4496,"predictedMean":0.4469},{"hi":0.6,"lo":0.5,"count":1649,"actualFreq":0.527,"predictedMean":0.545},{"hi":0.7,"lo":0.6,"count":1328,"actualFreq":0.5768,"predictedMean":0.648},{"hi":0.8,"lo":0.7,"count":1282,"actualFreq":0.6147,"predictedMean":0.7505},{"hi":0.9,"lo":0.8,"count":1168,"actualFreq":0.6575,"predictedMean":0.8488},{"hi":1,"lo":0.9,"count":918,"actualFreq":0.8083,"predictedMean":0.9496}],"metrics":{"brier":0.10721,"logLoss":0.35167,"baselineBrier":0.12957,"heldOutEntries":84141,"fieldBaselineWinRate":0.1615},"modelVersion":"odds-v1-winrate-core","generatedAt":"2026-10-03T17:31:41.47+00:00","meta":{"source":"paddock-db"}}